Former Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman Addresses ‘Alliance of Autocracies’ and Other Foreign Policy Challenges Facing Next US President

In the last several weeks, US intelligence reports emerged that Chinese companies are helping Russia produce long-range attack drones for use in Ukraine, and North Korea is dispatching thousands of troops to the conflict there. These developments reflect a trend of growing cooperation among China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran – a group of nations aligned in their desire to challenge US power and the Western-dominated world order.

Ambassador Wendy Sherman, a veteran diplomat who previously served as the 21st Deputy Secretary of State, discussed the alliance of autocracies, or “axis of chaos,” during an Institute of Global Politics roundtable on October 22 on national security challenges facing the next US president. Sherman, an IGP Carnegie Distinguished Fellow, emphasized that President Biden’s successor will need a nuanced strategy to deal with the countries independently and as an axis.

“It’s critical to look at where in the world these countries are operating and where they are in competition with each other because that creates opportunities for the United States to disrupt the alliance,” she said, noting China and Russia’s interests in Africa, as well as Iran’s and Russia’s interests in Latin America.

Sherman spoke with SIPA Dean Keren Yarhi-Milo, who asked how former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris would differ in their approaches to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, competition with China, and Iran’s nuclear program.

On Ukraine, Sherman noted, Harris would continue President Biden’s support for Kyiv, and Trump would cut off aid and negotiate a deal to end the war “within 24 hours,” which would likely mean giving Russian President Vladimir Putin the Donbas region and Crimea. Under Harris, NATO and EU support for Ukraine would continue, as Europe understands that if Putin takes Ukraine, then the Baltic states are probably up next. “The stakes are quite high,” Sherman said. “Countries like Moldova and Poland will get increasingly anxious that they could be a path to another world war on European soil.” Trump may try to leave NATO; however, Congress passed a law earlier this year barring a president from exiting NATO unilaterally.

Yarhi-Milo turned the conversation to US strategy on Iran and its proxies, noting the recent toppling of Hezbollah leadership and killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by Israel and the implications of the war expanding. Sherman, who was the lead negotiator for the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, discussed the possibility of Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and whether there might be a replacement for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The JCPOA and its “snapback” provision, which allows the UN to reinstate sanctions, expires in October 2025. “Everybody’s eyes, including Iran’s, are on getting something in place between now and October 2025, which is a very short period for these kinds of negotiations,” Sherman said of reaching a new agreement.

Yarhi-Milo and Sherman also discussed bipartisan support for a tougher stance on China; they noted that Trump’s and Harris’ views diverge on how the US should address competition with Beijing. Sherman called Trump’s proposal to put 60 percent tariffs on imports from China “unheard of,” saying it would hurt Americans more than China and increase the cost of living by $3,000 per family or more. She called for “derisking, not decoupling” and emphasized the importance of building alliances in the Indo-Pacific and Europe to counter China’s threats.

Sherman added that involving middle powers – such as South Africa, Kenya, Brazil, and Uruguay – [and the Global South] is also critical. “It’s a multipolar world, and we have to reflect that in what we do,” she said.