Escalation Dynamics in the Space Domain: IGP Hosts Workshop on the New Frontiers of Strategic Competition

On May 6, Columbia’s Institute of Global Politics (IGP) hosted a workshop with a diverse group of participants from academia, industry, and government to examine the strategic dynamics of outer space and the escalation risks posed by its increasing significance.

Held under Chatham House Rule, the workshop was organized by Erica Lonergan, Columbia SIPA Professor and IGP Affiliated Faculty Member, and Benjamin Jensen, director of the Future Lab at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, as part of their ongoing research and policy work on the implications of the space domain and emerging technology for escalation and future conflict.

The workshop featured participants from a wide variety of academic and private sector institutions, including Columbia, Yale, Carnegie Mellon, UC San Diego, UC Berkeley, George Washington University, Marine Corps University, Georgetown, Center for Strategic and International Studies, General Atomics, and Northrop Grumman, among others.

Participants explored potential causes and pathways to escalation in the context of two plausible but fictional crisis scenarios. The first crisis was triggered by an event on land, while the second was triggered by an event in the space domain. Participants debated whether and how the situation might escalate and expand into space, how actors could signal resolve, and which options might be applicable for de-escalation.

A core part of the workshop’s discussion was the question of how escalation in space might differ from escalation in other domains. Participants evaluated whether canonical escalation frameworks remain adequate for understanding conflict dynamics in space, or whether the domain’s unique characteristics demand new analytical tools.

Additionally, the scenario-based exercises allowed participants to work through concrete crisis situations to imagine how states might respond to provocations in space and test whether established escalation frameworks translate meaningfully to this domain.

The participants converged on a few key takeaways, including:

• The importance of distinguishing between actions taken for signaling purposes versus operational preparation of the environment during space crises;
• the differential escalatory implications across the various physical spaces that define the space domain;
• the role of ambiguity and how to balance imperatives to convey information to the adversary versus maintain secrecy or uncertainty;
• the definition of new escalation thresholds for space, particularly those that can be self-reinforcing;
• and the challenges posed by the dual commercial and military uses of space systems and the role of space as a global commons. 

The workshop comes at a critical moment for policymakers considering the potential of a future conflict being triggered in space. Once the preserve of a handful of state actors, the domain has been transformed by commercialization and by the deep integration of space systems into every aspect of modern warfighting. From GPS and communications to intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and early warning systems, virtually all military operations now depend on assets in orbit. This dependence, participants noted, makes space both a critical enabler and a potential flashpoint.