The Axis of Chaos/Alliance of Adversaries: A Roundtable Conversation with Ambassador Wendy Sherman

On November 18, Ambassador Wendy Sherman convened a roundtable for Institute of Global Politics and SIPA students to discuss how policymakers in the United States should confront what many pundits call the “axis of chaos”— the alignment of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea against the US-led rules-based international order.

Sherman, an IGP Carnegie Distinguished Fellow and former US deputy secretary of state, said she wanted to discuss this development because she sees lively discussions of frameworks for thinking about the links between these countries. 

Joining Sherman in this discussion were Jean-Marie Guéhenno, director of the Kent Global Leadership Program on Conflict Resolution; Valentina Izmirlieva, director of the Harriman Institute and professor of Slavic Languages and Literatures; Jack Snyder, the Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Relations at the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies; and Kian Tajbakhsh, Presidential Fellow and lecturer at Columbia University's Committee on Global Thought and adjunct professor of urban policy at SIPA.

The forum of scholars shared their thoughts on the “axis of chaos” formulation and the prospect for greater cooperation among core US adversaries.

Guéhenno expressed skepticism about the phrase “axis of chaos.”  Given its evocation of World War II’s axis powers, he said,  it’s “a comparison that doesn’t work” because it “lumps together countries that have very different objectives.”

“Iran and North Korea aren’t global players with global agendas. They look after their own security,” he said, adding that China projects powers globally and has global economic interests, while Russia maintains influence through global disruption campaigns.

Snyder differentiates between opportunistic cooperation between these countries and political convergence. There has been “more cooperation than people may have expected,” he said, pointing to North Korea’s decision to send troops to fight on Ukraine’s border. 

According to Snyder, these countries have converged on the “idea that society and politics are best when organized around strongman rule.” Liberal regimes “have a normative convergence on values,” which allows them to set up rules-based international institutions. This dynamic has historically prevented liberal democratic regimes from going to war with each other, while authoritarian regimes usually do not enjoy this same guardrail.

“This is an axis of upheaval, not chaos,” Tajbakhsh said, noting that the past 20 years have seen a “remarkable degree of convergence” between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. “This axis isn’t a robust alliance, but they’re providing a lot of assistance to each other,” he said. They support the same goal: to displace the US-led world order.

Despite this common goal, significant points of cultural divergence remain between these countries, which could undermine their long-term cooperation. “We have four countries that have their political visions of themselves enmeshed with religion,” Izmirlieva said, referring to Islam in Iran, Christianity in Russia, Confucianism in China, and atheism in North Korea. “How will they negotiate their long-term commitment when their religious convictions clash?”