IGP Fireside Chat Honors Political Psychology Pioneer Robert Jervis

“A psychological profile isn’t enough,” said former Secretary of State and Institute of Global Politics (IGP) Faculty Advisory Board Chair Hillary Rodham Clinton to a packed room of top officials and academics. “You need to understand the context someone is living in.”

Clinton joined Columbia SIPA Dean Keren Yarhi-Milo at SIPA on January 30 for a fireside chat, “The Psychology of the Situation Room,” as part of the Third Annual Conference in Honor of Robert Jervis, hosted by the Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies and IGP. The event convened both scholars and former top officials in the US State Department to examine how leaders can perceive and misinterpret each other. The event also announced the forthcoming publication of The Jervis Effect, an edited volume examining the role of political psychology in decision-making.

Yarhi-Milo, who described herself as "a proud student of Jervis," explained how his groundbreaking research on state image projection and leader misperception became foundational to her own work. "There is a clear relation between people's psychology and self-interest, but we still need a lot of empirical work," she said.

Those perceptions can directly shape how leaders engage with other leaders in times of crisis. “The most useful information we had about [then-president of Egypt Hosni] Mubarak during the Arab Spring was that his grandson had just died, and he was in grief,” said Clinton. “He could have controlled his departure from power, but he was paralyzed by indecision.”

She emphasized that such information requires more than intelligence assessments, it necessitates direct and frequent interaction, as well as contact with allies who maintain friendships with leaders such as Mubarak. Understanding his mental state meant knowing he had a different response to pressure, and consequently, the US Government engaged with him differently.

This understanding of psychology also impacts strategy with adversaries. Clinton recalled how psychology shaped her dealings with Russian President Vladimir Putin. While he often engaged in mental sparring, a rare unguarded moment revealed a personal story: his father had rescued his mother, presumed dead, from a pile of bodies during the Stalingrad siege. This previously unknown detail, Clinton said, illuminated Putin's resourcefulness and mistrust — traits evident in his leadership style.

With public opinion easily misconstrued by social media, it is harder to read intentions and signal leaders. Face-to-face diplomacy has become more important than ever, noted both speakers. “What factors make leaders’ psychology matter?” Clinton asked. “The field is ripe for cooperation and dialogue.”